Buyers would really love Tiger feat
Tiger Woods was on top form in his press conference earlier, but will he be on top form on the course after an enforced 16-week lay off?
Timing his return for the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone, the course where he has won seven times in his last nine attempts. He's also paired with recent Open winner Darren Clarke, so Tiger will be hoping success rubs off on him to end his drought of two years without a tournament victory.
It's perhaps slightly surprising then to see Woods behind 13 other players in the finishing position markets - his spread is 29-32 with Sporting Index.
Going against Woods is the fact that he has parted company from his most succesful caddy, Steve Williams, the man who stood beside Tiger on his way to 13 majors and also the fact that Woods reportedly only started practising one week ago.
So what sort of player is most likely to win? At 7,400 yards, Firestone is a long par 70, although shorter hitters have tasted success here. A key attribute seems to be scrambling. Look out for Steve Stricker, Jason Day and Zach Johnson - all of whom are ranked in the top 5 for scrambling stats on the PGA Tour.
Royal St. George’s: Open for business
Anticipation has never been higher for the Open Championship - a tournament in which European Tour players could make it six major wins in a row.
Europeans indeed dominate the betting, with Lee Westwood as favourite on the spreads - Sporting Index go 18-21 for his finishing position - while Rory McIlroy and Luke Donald are just behind at 23-26. Sporting Index have made the enticing promise to refund all losing finishing position bets should McIlroy win the tournament.
Although European golf is in the ascendency, it should be noted that Americans have won six of the last 10 last Opens, while only one European has won the event in that time - Padraig Harrington in 2007 and 2008.
The winning score is expected to be 277-278 by the spread firms, or two to three under par. Royal St. George's has hosted the Open four times in the last 30 years, where the winning scores have been -4 (1981), +2 (1985), -13 (1993) and -1 (2003), but note that the tricky 495-yard fourth has been changed and reduced to a par four this year. This, combined with the tough conditions leads Sporting Index's traders to predict just six players will be under par after four rounds.
Short and sweet at Wentworth
The Harry Colt-designed West Course at Wentworth, the venue for this weekend's BMW PGA Championship, favours accuracy rather than power off the tee.
It is also notable how many outsiders tend to overacheive in this tournament. Last year's winner Simon Khan won at 200/1, while rank outsiders Stephen Dodd and Jyoti Randhawa finished in the top five in 2009 and 2008 respectively. With that in mind, there are a handful of players that stand out and some that look ripe to be taken on on the spreads - here's the picks, suggested actions and the reasons why...
Paul Lawrie - sell finishing position at 44
The Scot is in his best form in a decade. He's finished fifth, fifth and 17th since winning the Andalucia Open a couple of months ago and has a solid record here, finishing sixth last time.
Miguel Angel Jiminez - buy top Spaniard Index at 23
Former tournament winner (2008) and relative lack of power no problem at all. Compatriot Alvaro Quiros not suited well enough to the track to challenge.
Matteo Manassero - buy leaderboard index at 6
Surely his time is just around the corner? No distance off the tee, but a sublime short game and 11th on Tour for accuracy. An excellent 17th finish on his Wentworth debut last year.
Lee Westwood - sell top Ryder Cupper index at 18
The world's best golfer? Seven missed cuts in 10 suggests that's not the case at Wentworth. Too many of his teammates last October are made of the right stuff to tame the Surrey course and Westy could easily finish below any or all of Donald, Kaymer, Jiminez, Fisher, F Molinari, Poulter and Hanson
Experience counts at Players Championship
A couple of stats for you on golf's 'fifth major', the Players Championship, which begins on Thursday. One might inform your spread betting on the event, the other is just an interesting thing to share down the pub.
1) Since 2003, the average number of tournaments before a first win at the Players is between 7 and 8.
2) NBC focus 11 cameras on the 17th at TPC at Sawgrass aka the world famous Island Green.
The conclusion to take from (1) above is that experience is a key factor. (I myself have negotiated the track many times, but I'm not sure Tiger Woods' PGA Golf on the Wii is really adequate preparation.) Tim Clark continued the trend by winning last time on his 8th start, and this year, Luke Donald, who makes his ninth appearance, fits the profile of a potential winner well - scrambling and GIR ability is at a premium here and the solid Englishman ranks highly in both. Should he need any more motivation than a winner's cheque worth $1.7 million, he could also become the world number one with victory at Sawgrass.
Sporting Index quote winning score at 272-273 or between -16 and -15. The average score over the last ten years is -11.8, while only twice has 15-under been bettered in that sample, both of which suggests a sell. Markets are also available on 'players under par' and it should be noted that the scoring average was 71.73, the first under-par average since 1996.
Wells Fargo Championship – aptly named…
... because, from the start to the finish, there is well far to go. There are 7,442 yards between Quail Hollow's first tee and the 18th green to be precise.
As such, those who, like He-Man, have the power can be expected to prosper. That's certainly happened in recent years when Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim and Tiger Woods have all won on the track.
Nick Watney has a solid record here, but while fixed odds bookies make him 22/1, it looks more appealing to sell his finishing position spread at around 29. The American has finished inside the top-25 in five of six starts at Quail Hollow, but never inside the top ten.
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