Spreadwiser Wiser Spread Betting and Other Thoughts

9Nov/12Off

First Mohican bids to end incredible season for Cecil on a high in November Handicap

The November Handicap is run at Doncaster on the last day of the flat season tomorrow and, with a field of over 20, it is a typically competitive affair as connections battle for the last big pot of the year.

Sir Henry Cecil, who has just waved goodbye to the brilliant Frankel as he embarks on a new career at stud, has the chance to sign off a fantastic season with First Mohican, a horse who was once held in a regard not too far from Frankel.

Injury problems kept First Mohican off the track for two years but he has returned to make it three wins from three career starts and is the only unbeaten animal in the field.

The last favourite to win was Snow Princess in 1995 though, so perhaps bettors are best looking elsewhere.

Five of the last ten winners have been four-years-old which is a positive for the likes of First Mohican, The Tiger and Voodoo Prince.

Only one horse in the last 20 years was over five so that could rule out Hillview Boy, Bollin Greta, Sirvino and Darley Sun.

Track form is important with six of the last ten winners having previously won on Town Moor (although the 2006 renewal did take place at Windsor). That’s a positive for Art Scholar, War Poet, Party Line and Nicolascopernicus.

Eight of the last 10 victors had also previously won at the twelve-furlong trip, again a plus for the likes of Party Line, Bridle Belle, Songcraft and Retrieve among others.

Only Carte Diamond in 2004 had less than five runs previously that season (four) which is a big negative against the current favourite who has only ever had three starts.

Posted by Patrick Callaghan

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